How Turkey is calculating its response to Israeli escalation in Syria
Ankara has avoided direct confrontation so far, but analysts argue it must prepare for the possibility.
Turkey's handling of Israeli escalation in Syria has so far avoided direct confrontation, but analysts argue Ankara should prepare for the possibility that it cannot be avoided indefinitely.
The two countries now operate in overlapping space. Turkey maintains a substantial presence in northern Syria and has expanded its influence with the post-Assad authorities in Damascus, while Israeli operations have extended into Syrian territory. Where two militaries act in the same theatre without a deconfliction mechanism, the risk is less deliberate confrontation than an incident neither intended.
Ankara's calculation rests on several constraints. It remains a NATO member, which limits how far a confrontation could escalate before drawing in allies with their own relationships with Israel. It has invested heavily in the stabilisation of northern Syria, which a wider conflict would place at risk. And its position in Damascus depends on being seen as a guarantor rather than as a party importing a further war.
Turkey's handling of Israeli escalation in Syria has so far avoided direct confrontation, but analysts argue Ankara should prepare for the possibility that it cannot be avoided indefinitely.
The regional picture is shifting around these calculations. Turkey signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on 7 August, committing each to treat an armed attack on any one of them as an attack on all three, a commitment that changes what a confrontation involving one of them implies for the others.
The US-led anti-ISIS coalition is meanwhile withdrawing from Iraq by 30 September, with the German contingent already departed.
Based on reporting by Middle East Eye.
