Features|ConflictIn Lebanon, Israel is using occupation as negotiating tool, say analystsIsrael is using military occupation of southern Lebanon and displacement crisis to dictate ceasefire terms, say experts.

Geopolitical Conflict and Negotiations

Recent military activities in Beirut's southern Dahiyeh suburb have led to forced evacuations following Israeli military orders. The situation is marked by Israeli bombings in Beirut and southern Lebanon, juxtaposed with diplomatic initiatives proposed by France for intervention.

Current Military and Humanitarian Situation

The conflict has resulted in significant humanitarian impacts. Since March 2, Lebanon has faced an extensive Israeli offensive resulting in approximately 850 fatalities, including 107 children and 66 women, as reported by the Ministry of Public Health. Additionally, over one million individuals have been displaced, seeking refuge in overcrowded shelters. This escalation was triggered by Hezbollah's response to a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran in late February, effectively ending the November 2024 ceasefire.

Diplomatic Efforts and Military Strategy

French President Emmanuel Macron has offered to host direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel in Paris, aiming to prevent further destabilization in Lebanon. France has committed to delivering 60 tonnes of humanitarian aid and armored personnel carriers to Lebanese forces. However, analysts suggest that Israeli military actions are shaping the agenda for potential talks.

Israel is reportedly using its military presence to influence future security arrangements, potentially impacting Lebanese sovereignty. Ziad Majed, a political science professor, indicates that current diplomatic conditions might require the Lebanese army to disarm Hezbollah under US and French oversight. Israel's occupation of Lebanese territory is seen as a strategy to force negotiation over sovereignty and territorial control.

Military developments include the deployment of six Israeli military divisions, approximately 100,000 soldiers, along the northern border. The town of Khiam is identified as a strategic point, with its control potentially facilitating the creation of a buffer zone by Israel.

The Lebanese government is actively working to form a delegation for ceasefire negotiations, though internal political tensions persist. Exclusion of Shia representatives in the delegation, as per Speaker Nabih Berri, has been noted, with stipulations that an Israeli ceasefire must precede negotiations. The disarmament of Hezbollah remains a contentious issue and has the potential to incite internal conflict.

Currently, neither Israel nor Hezbollah appear prepared for immediate concessions. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has rejected direct talks without prior action from Lebanon to curtail Hezbollah's activities. Concurrently, Hezbollah's leadership emphasizes that military engagements will determine outcomes, cautioning against premature diplomatic concessions.

The historical context of the 1983 Israeli invasion and the subsequent aborted peace treaty highlights the complexities of negotiating under military occupation. Presently, displaced Lebanese families face continued uncertainty as their homes become central to ongoing military and diplomatic maneuvers.

Based on reporting by Al Jazeera.