EXPLAINERNews|Russia-Ukraine warHow will Putin travel to Hungary to meet Trump with ICC arrest warrant?Will Putin be inspired by fellow ICC fugitive Netanyahu to take a more circuitous route to his destination?

Overview of Vladimir Putin's Visit to Hungary

Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Hungary soon to meet with United States counterpart Donald Trump for a second summit aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. The initial meeting in Alaska in August did not result in an agreement.

In 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for Putin's arrest over alleged illegal deportations of Ukrainian children during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Signatories of the 1998 Rome Statute, which established the ICC, are required to arrest individuals with warrants upon entering their territory, including airspace considered sovereign under international law.

Hungary, intending to withdraw from the ICC agreement, provides a safe space for Putin, surrounded by countries that remain bound by the statute. However, the ICC lacks a police force to enforce arrests.

Despite being an ICC member, Hungary is in the process of withdrawing. In April, Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced the withdrawal, which was approved by Hungarian parliament in May. The withdrawal becomes official one year after notification to the United Nations Secretary-General.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has expressed the country's intent to host President Putin with respect, ensuring successful negotiations and a safe return home.

Considerations for Putin's Travel Route

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated that several questions need resolution before Putin's journey, including the flight path. Avoiding the Baltic states is likely, given recent airspace violations by Russian jets. Belarus could provide a corridor, but Poland presents a challenge due to strained relations with Russia.

Slovakia, under Moscow-leaning leadership, may be accommodating, but crossing Poland remains an issue. Putin's direct route to Budapest faces several obstacles.

Putin might consider a route similar to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who avoided several European countries when traveling to the UN General Assembly in New York. Potential southern routes could involve Georgia and Turkiye, with Greece providing access to the Balkan states.

Putin's Travel History Since ICC Warrant

Since the ICC warrant, Putin has limited his travels. He visited Mongolia, an ICC member with friendly relations with Russia. The trip to Alaska for a meeting with Trump involved a route over non-hostile territories. Visits to China and Tajikistan, both non-ICC members or friendly states, have occurred without incident.

The ICC arrest warrants are an initial step towards trial, but capturing Putin is unlikely. Few national leaders have faced trial at The Hague. Historical cases include Charles Taylor and Slobodan Milosevic. A future shift in Kremlin power dynamics could influence potential extradition, though it remains improbable.

Based on reporting by Al Jazeera.